The big day is almost here. Tomorrow President Obama will sit down with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Geneva. Leaders from Russia, China, Great Britain, France, and Germany will also be in attendance, but there is no doubt that this is a standoff between the new American President and Ahmadinejad. Months of rhetoric and evasive maneuvers have given way to defiance. The Iranian leader has raised the stakes a number of times with missile tests and strong statements directed at the United States and it European allies. So what is to be expected of this meeting?
The answer is likely to be a lot of nothing. Ahmadinejad has publicly stated that he has no intention of altering his nation’s course of nuclear development and I doubt that this summit will change his direction. Madmen like this one bask in these moments. They give them legitimacy. This is why this is such a fool’s folly to begin with. Sitting down with rogue nation’s rests wishful hopes upon these nations finally seeing the light. The reality is that such a moment of enlightenment will simply never come.
With Russia softening its tone in the past few days, it is unlikely that any real benefit will come out of this meeting. They stand to lose a great deal from economic sanctions on Iran as they are the largest provider of refined fuel to the nation. Any sanctions that would have any level of success would have to have Russia and perhaps even China on board fully, and the chances of that are slim.
I am certainly not routing against our President today, because I would love for his new progressive diplomacy to work and spare innocent lives from getting caught in the crossfire, but I have to say that I am rather pessimistic about the chances for success.
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