A group of college students predicted the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden within 300km; back in 2009? Can you say SCH-OL-AR-SHIP?
Using a “geographical theory” known as island biogeography - “That if you’re going to try and survive, you’re going to a region with a low extinction rate: a large town,” the students were able to conclude and accurately predicted that “he wouldn’t be in a small town where people could report on him.”
So a group of co-eds nailed this thing with some mathematical formulas and animal extinction data; and the frigging CIA was none-the-wiser?
Sounds like a scene from Numbers – without the ridiculously hot lab assistants, of course (I’m guessing).
SCIENCE INSIDER: Could Osama bin Laden have been found faster if the CIA had followed the advice of ecosystem geographers from the University of California, Los Angeles? Probably not, but the predictions of UCLA geographer Thomas Gillespie, who, along with colleague John Agnew and a class of undergraduates, authored a 2009 paper predicting the terrorist’s whereabouts, were none too shabby. According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 88.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in a city less than 300 km from his last known location in Tora Bora: a region that included Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night.
Brand me a skeptic. 300km from his last known location? That’s what….let me see…a search radius of 283,000 square kilometers!
I never would have predicted he’d be near a city – too many eyes, too many rumors, and too big a reward. I don’t think he was there for the entire 10 years.
My guess was that he was up in the mountains of Pakistan approaching the Chinese border, near the Khunjerab National Park. The downside of this location is that he would be trapped if discovered. The upside is that all he had to do was cross the border into China and we wouldn’t have touched him. China would have done nothing to help us.
It does make sense, though, that he would have an easier escape amongst the many city dwellers, and the location was shielded from bombs by a Women and Children’s Hospital, another hospital, three medical clinics, a mosque, a Girls College, and a Pakistani Officers College.
I’m astonished he didn’t have an escape tunnel. If you build a million dollar compound in Afghanistan, you make a Bat Cave.
This leads me to believe that perhaps he wasn’t entirely there of his own volition. It’s possible the Pakistanis were keeping him there safe from harm and under their control.
I think SOMEBODY took the reward money.
I’m also astonished that the capture of a CIA contractor in Lahore wouldn’t have given him a clue they were closing in. All the more reason to believe that he didn’t have freedom of movement.
I am with you in your skepticism, I just thought the story was somewhat interesting. It’s just funny – to me – to observe how people suddenly and magically have all the answers post-whatever it is that happens.
My personal view at this point from what I’ve pieced together from the administration and various reports is that he chose that location for the most obvious reason being floated out there. It was close to a Pakistani military base, it was surrounded by innocent civilians, and any number of people in the area that could have tipped him off to an attack.
As to his exit strategy, I’m not too sure at this point that he didn’t in fact have one. One doesn’t sew money and phone numbers into your pajamas unless you think you’re going to get word of an assault and have time to get away. If not, you’d sew a pistol in there and sleep with an grenade on your nightstand.
But like anything, it’s all speculation at this point. I am of the belief that the “real” juice related to this story will surface once the Pakistani really start chattering and those close to bin Laden start leaking propaganda. There’s nearly always at least a hint of truth in every lie. Id imagine we will hear some good ones in the days to come.
The White House announced today it won’t release photographs. In other words, Obama is less forthcoming about killing Osama than providing his birth certificate.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist, so it sounds to me that Obama WANTS there to be conspiracy theories. The only reason to encourage conspiracy theories is so that you can easily shoot them down later for political gain.
I never got too excited about the news precisely because I knew Obama was going to politicize every aspect of it.
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