Romney, Gingrich Fighting It Out for "Most Conservative"
Rush Limbaugh will never be mistaken for a “half way” kinda guy. Either he brings the A game or he simply stays home. As you probably know, the only time he takes said game beyond the walls of the EIB is the occasional appearance with Greta Van Susteren. He made one of those rare appearances Wednesday night and was asked to weigh in on the GOP field and the candidates’ respective chances of defeating Barack Obama.
GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, HOST: If you think someone who’s moderate cannot beat Obama or should not be selected by the Republican Party, who is the most conservative who fits the bill of what you think is a Republican who can beat Obama?
RUSH LIMBAUGH: Well, I think, again now, if the election were held today. You see, I know that since I do not subscribe or practice conventional wisdom that my answer here is going to discredit me with all the, you know, professional political experts. But I think right now anybody other than Ron Paul could beat Obama if the election were tomorrow – easily.
Anyone other than Ron Paul? That should raise a few eyebrows. I know Rush is certainly accustomed to more than his fair share of blowback and hatemail, but does anyone out there really think he was ready for the onslaught he no doubt received today?
For what it’s worth, I don’t entirely agree with Rush’s assertion here. To be clear, I agree with him on the Ron Paul front. I fail to see any path where Paul’s delivery would in any way lend itself to a successful campaign against President Obama – regardless of the underlying message. I cannot; however, entirely agree with the other half of Rush’s assertion as I am anything but confident that anyone beyond Romney, Gingrich, and maybe Santorum could eventually oust the current president. Bachmann’s a definite loser as her negatives outweigh her positives in a general election. Huntsman would cause countless Republicans to simply sit the thing out. And Perry looks and sounds an awful lot like Bush these days and would be painted by the media as everything from a homophobe to a racist.
And… every bit of that ignores the even bigger picture behind the presidential race. Now I know Rush wasn’t commenting on that aspect of things, but it should not be overlooked. The person we ultimately choose as our Party’s nominee will be at the top of the ticket – and we all know how folks like to vote straight down the ballot. If the ultimate nominee isn’t capable of generating enthusiasm and broad support among the base, the whole debate may be nothing more than an exercise in overblown optimism. The goal of 2012 elections must be to hold on to grow the majority in the House and to gain seats in the Senate. When looking at this current field through that prism, the list of desirable candidates undeniably gets even shorter.
I think he is wrong. I don’t see an electoral map that gives Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum a win.
[...] said he can’t win and I’m not one to disagree with Rush just for the heck of it. That said, I continue to [...]
I agree with just a conservative girl. Few pundits ever look at the electoral map, and they misconstrue the evidence in the popular vote.
Ron Paul would likely lose every state in the nation, including Utah.
Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum wouldn’t come close. Huntsman might be able to win if the rest of the party rallied behind him and Obama was saddled with a flagging economy.
Gingrich will probably fall short.
Romney is the only candidate who can beat Obama. That assessment is based on his moderate views for the swing voters and his political organization and fundraising capabilities. I think Gingrich’s campaign apparatus fell apart.
The election comes down to a handful of states. The Republican candidate must win back Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Nevada. On top of that, the candidate would have to win at least one of Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.
If the Republican loses Florida, Virgina, or Ohio, that candidate would have to win two or three states on that list.
If Romney chooses Pawlenty as VP, they will have a pretty good chance of winning at least one midwestern state, assuming that the Demon Rats will keep Colorado and Iowa, and assuming Romney won’t lose any southern states.
Zero is a wounded president, but the Electoral math is in his favor. An improving economy might be just enough for him to repeat the experience of 1996. With two or three Supreme Court seats opening up, we dare not let him have those nominations! That issue is more important that any other thing any Republican would ever do.
If Obama loses Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, it will be an early victory party for our candidate.
If the Republican loses Florida, Virginia, or Ohio, then Zero will be a two-term president.
None of the other states really matter.