Rick Santorum just took the podium at 11:20 Iowa time and the first words out of his mouth were “Game On.” Game on, indeed sir. I guess some guy’s still bringing the rest of the votes in a pickup truck or something, but the race is 25% / 25% - Santorum/Romney with 98% of precincts reporting. Fifty votes or so one way or the other may prove to turn a moral victory into an actual victory; but considering the fact that Santorum’s pretty much the definition of a long-shot, I’d say he walks away the winner this night – regardless of the vote count.
For what it’s worth, if you buy the Karl Rove/Fox News breakdown, Santorum’s probably going to technically finish second. Considering from whence he came, I think he’ll sleep pretty well knowing he only fell a few dozen votes short of a guy that’s been running for half a decade.
– Just in case you missed it. This was my attempt at prognostication pre-caucus. I overestimated Bachmann who finished at 5% and Gingrich who came in at 13%; and certainly did not foresee such a close race at the top; but on the whole, I feel pretty good about how my pulse-checker’s working going forward.
But I’ll also do you one better and go a step further. I think this thing will come down to a 23-21-18-17-11-09 contest. (1 % to fringe and write-ins) In a nutshell, there may be no “winnowing” til South Carolina.
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