Just because it seems more folks here on the Internet and around the world of political punditry appear more willing to play Monday (Wednesday) morning quarterback suddenly blessed with all the answers, I thought I’d share a few predictions here for the record regarding New Hampshire’s “pivotal” primary currently underway – before the results roll in.
Biggest Loser:
This is actually a hard one. In a race defined by candidates skipping contests, acting like they did, and participating but not really participating; the loser’s not necessarily the guy that finished last. In this case, it will be – well, sort of. Governor Rick Perry’s going to bring up the rear in this contest, but I’m fairly certain he’ll still sleep tonight knowing the results would have changed very little had he actually contested the primary. And since he chalked that one up in the loss column some time ago, “biggest loser” here is merely a product of where he’ll finish; rather than a reflection of the general primary campaign as a whole. That, my friends, is another story altogether. If his strategy proves to be an effective one, he could potentially win for losing in New Hampshire if it earns him brownie points with South Carolinians and gives him time to mount an offensive aimed at both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
Biggest Surprise:
I’m not sure that much could really qualify at this point, but I do believe Rick Santorum will “surprise” some in the pundit class this evening with a respectable finish. I see him finishing fourth, but emerging as the social conservative alternative to Romney.
Biggest Mover:
Jon Huntsman. That’s John Huntsman for those of you new to this. From barely cracking 1% point just a few months ago in national polls, he will be the biggest mover of the primary going away. I don’t expect him to legitimately challenge for a victory, but I do see him making more noise than anyone outside the Huntsman camp could have imagined back in November. Whether that translates to anything outside New Hampshire, I’ll leave to your better judgment. From where I sit, if he has a role post-Tuesday night, it will be chipping away at Romney stranglehold on the moderate/independent vote. I’m not sure how long that could keep anyone in this race.
The Predictions:
5. Newt Gingrich: He’s going to once again have to go back to the drawing board and figure out where things went wrong. Was he too negative? Or was he simply too negative too late?
4. Rick Santorum: When is a loss still a win? When you’re in an open primary like New Hampshire and you’re in a race with two moderate Republicans and Ron Paul.
3. Ron Paul: I think Congressman Paul slips a bit from recent polling and is narrowly outpaced by Ambassador Huntsman. I’m certain this will only further motivate the Paul camp as they move toward South Carolina, but I wonder what it means about his appeal with independent voters.
2. Jon Huntsman: It’s going to be a big night for the Huntsman camp. While I expect him to finish well behind Governor Romney, I do think headlines tomorrow will boast of a new candidate in the race. I’m not sure that the moral victory will be anything more than that; but I do believe Huntsman will be vindicated for his decision to wage a “last stand” in the Granite State.
1. Mitt Romney: Anything short of a landslide is going to be seen by most as a bad night for Governor Romney. Fair or not, victory will be judged in every imaginable fashion and few will focus on the candidate who actually received the most votes. What’s the standard for an acceptable result? A 10% margin? Clearing 35%? I’m going with 35% and I think Romney will come in just under that number leaving pundits Left, Right, and Center to ponder “Why Republicans Just Don’t Want Mitt Romney?” Probably not fair, but such is the life of a slightly right of center front-runner in a GOP contest.
How close will it be?
Romney 34%
Huntsman 18%
Paul 17%
Santorum 14%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 5%
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Ed Morrissey at HotAir is one of the few willing to go out on a limb with a prediction. Here’e how he sees it playing out…
Of course, I am doing this with the benefit of the voting in New Hampshire already over with, but Ron Paul is solidly in 2nd place at the moment. With 17% of the votes counted, he is at 25%. Obviously, I don’t expect him to win the primary, but he is doing much better than many people give him credit for.